Oil prices plunged this week as a one-two punch of sweeping U.S. import tariffs and an unexpected OPEC+ supply hike erased $10 per barrel from global benchmarks.
Friday, April 04, 2025
The combined effect of Donald Trump’s import tariffs, OPEC+’s inopportune decision to speed up the unwinding of production cuts and China’s retaliatory actions have wiped off $10 per barrel from global oil prices, with ICE Brent falling below $65 per barrel for the first time since August 2021. Seeing backwardation barely change compared to the beginning of the week, one could assume that US tariffs are the defining factor for the price change, nevertheless this week will not go down well in the history of oil markets.
OPEC+ Rushes to Unwind Production Cuts. Eight OPEC+ countries that have been moving along with the gradual return of their 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts unexpectedly agreed to expedite the unwinding of production cuts, boosting output in May by 411,000 b/d, equivalent to three monthly increases.
Trump Surprise Moves Squashes Metal Arbitrage. Whilst many traders expected Donald Trump’s import tariff roll-out to impact metal markets, the non-sanctioning of metals led to shrinking spreads between US and European benchmarks, with Comex gold premia over London futures halving to just $20 per ounce.
China Strikes Back with 34% Tariff Move. Reacting to President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, the Chinese Finance Ministry announced that it would impose additional tariffs of 34% on all goods produced in the US from April 10, concurrently adding seven rare earth minerals to Beijing’s export controls list.
Related: Russian Court Rules CPC Oil Export Capacity Should Stay Open
Canada’s TMX Downgrades Export Outlook. Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline has downgraded its outlook for 2026-2028, pushing out full utilization beyond 2028 with an expectation of 84% throughput this year, largely due to lower-than-expected spot bookings in TMX, a mere 18,500 b/d so far.
Nigeria Picks Shell Executive for Top Oil Post. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu appointed Bashir Bayo Ojulari, formerly the country manager of Shell’s (LON:SHEL) operations, as the top executive of the country’s national oil firm NNPC, just weeks before NNPC’s long-anticipated IPO.
Activist Investor Buys Up BP, Shorts Shell. US activist hedge fund Elliott Management, concurrently to its reforming drive in embattled oil major BP (NYSE:BP), has built up a huge short position in BP’s competitor Shell (LON:SHEL), eq univalent to about 0.5% of Shell’s total worth.
IMF Warns of Global Tariff Fallout. The International Monetary Fund warned that US import tariffs and reciprocal measures triggered by them pose a ‘significant risk’ to the health of the global economy, potentially indicating that its 3.3% global GDP growth forecast for 2025-2026 could be soon cut lower.
World’s Top Miner Mulls Coal Spin-Off. Australia’s mining giant BHP (ASX:BHP) has reportedly considered spinning off its iron ore and coal divisions, similarly to its previous listing of South32 in 2015, however the company’s top management as iron ore still accounts for roughly 60% of its profits.
Agricultural Staples Fall Under Trade War Pressure. China’s reciprocal tariffs on the US have triggered a collapse in Chicago wheat and soybean futures as the tariff war puts US exporters at a disadvantage to Brazil, with both commodities set for their biggest weekly drop since November 2024.
Colombia Overcomes Indigenous Oil Riots. Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC), the national oil firm of Colombia, resumed operations at its Rubiales and Cano Sur oil fields, producing 140,000 b/d or 18% of the country’s total output, after a deal with Indigenous associations after weeks of riots that debilitated operations.
Iraq Doesn’t Want To Give Up on Kurdistan. The Iraqi Oil Ministry has reactivated efforts to find a negotiated settlement with the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan to resume oil exports from the north of the country, previously failing to convince Erbil that $16 per barrel would be an adequate price.
Kazakhstan Reports Giant Rare Earth Discovery. Kazakhstan’s Industry Ministry announced the discovery of a rare earth metal deposit with an estimated resource tally of more than 20 million tonnes in the region of Karaganda, placing it behind only China and Brazil in terms of prospective resources.
European Gas Stocks Plunge to Three-Year Lows. Natural gas stocks held in EU jurisdictions entered the summer period at their lowest in three years, totalling only 388 TWh of 34% of nameplate storage capacity, aggravated by a speeding up in net withdrawals to 1.02 TWh/d in the second half of March.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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